Tim Cook has long been seen as Apple’s secret weapon in Beijing. The CEO has cultivated relationships with Chinese officials for over a decade. But as US-China tensions escalate over trade, technology, and Taiwan, that influence is being tested.

Cook’s diplomacy has paid off handsomely. Apple relies on China for both its supply chain and its growth. The country accounts for nearly 20% of Apple’s revenue. Its factories assemble the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. Without China, Apple could not function.

The calculus is simple. Cook needs to keep Beijing happy. He has done so by donating to disaster relief, promising data localisation, and appointing a Chinese national to Apple’s board. But Washington’s push to decouple from China threatens to upend that strategy.

Talk to insiders at Apple Park, and they paint a picture of a CEO walking a tightrope. Cook has lobbied the White House against tariffs and export controls. He has also tried to secure exemptions for Apple products. But the Biden administration appears unmoved.

The biggest flashpoint is semiconductors. The US wants to cut off China’s access to advanced chips. Apple’s chips are designed in California but made in Taiwan by TSMC. Beijing sees Taiwan as a renegade province. Any disruption in the Taiwan Strait could cripple Apple’s supply chain.

Cook has tried to hedge. Apple now assembles some iPhones in India and Vietnam. But the core remains in China. Foxconn and other suppliers employ over a million Chinese workers. Shifting production would take years and billions.

There is also the matter of the Chinese market. Apple has built a loyal customer base in the country, especially among the young middle class. The iPhone is a status symbol. A chill in relations could hurt sales.

Last year, Apple reported a surge in revenue from China even as overall sales dipped. That reliance worries some investors. They fear that Beijing could retaliate against Apple if the US imposes more sanctions.

Cook’s approach has been visible. He attended the China Development Forum in March, shaking hands with Premier Li Qiang. He also visited Wang Yi, the foreign minister. These meetings are designed to show that Apple is committed.

But the geopolitical currents are shifting. Xi Jinping’s government is promoting self-reliance. Chinese tech firms like Huawei, once a minor threat, are now touting their own operating systems and chips. Apple’s app store, a cash cow, faces regulatory hurdles.

One former Apple executive told me: “Tim has a better relationship with China than any other US CEO. But that won’t stop a trade war.” It’s a blunt assessment.

What is at stake? Revenue, supply, and reputation. Apple’s market value, currently around $2.5 trillion, could take a hit. The company is already facing softer demand for the iPhone 15. A full-blown crisis in US-China relations would be catastrophic.

Cook cannot control the weather. He can only prepare Apple for the storm. He has done so by diversifying, lobbying, and smiling for the cameras. But the China question will define his legacy.

For now, the apple cart remains upright. But in a world of tariffs, sanctions, and national security fears, it may not stay that way.