Emmanuel Macron is heading to Nairobi. Not for a photo op. This is a strategic gambit. The French president wants a reset with Africa. He is choosing Kenya, not a Francophone state. That is the story.

Whitehall sources tell me this is a direct admission of failure. Paris has lost influence in its former colonies. Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger. All slipping away. The junta in Niamey is now cosying up to Russia. Macron needs a new playbook.

Kenya is a clever choice. It is Anglophone. It is a regional powerhouse. It has no colonial baggage with France. Or so the thinking goes. But the optics are brutal. A French leader holding a summit in East Africa to talk about “partnership”. The continent is not buying it.

A senior FCDO official told me this weekend: “The French are playing catch-up. They realise their model is broken. But to hold a summit in Kenya? That is a hail Mary.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity. Of course.

The summit is scheduled for later this year. The agenda is broad. Security, trade, climate. But the subtext is clear. France wants to rebrand. Macron will announce new investment. Perhaps a fund for infrastructure. But these are tired tropes.

Let us look at the polling. Across Francophone Africa, Macron’s approval is in the gutter. In Senegal, just 24% view France favourably. In Ivory Coast, it is 38%. These numbers are blood-red. The Élysée knows this.

Kenya itself is a tricky host. President William Ruto has his own problems. Debt, drought, protests. He will use the summit to burnish his image. But he is a savvy operator. He will not be a French puppet. Expect tough talk on trade imbalances.

The real game here is China. Beijing is everywhere in Africa. Loans, roads, ports. France cannot compete on scale. So Macron is trying a different tack. He talks of “equal partnership”. But African leaders have heard this before. They want concrete deliverables.

Back in London, the Foreign Office is watching closely. The UK has its own Africa strategy, announced last year. It is low-key. But there is a competition for influence. France’s move is a sign they are rattled.

One cannot ignore the colonial echo. France held summits with its former colonies for decades. Now it is doing a walkabout. Some French diplomats call it “decentring”. I call it panic. The continent is moving on. Russia, Turkey, Gulf states are all in the mix. Paris is just one player among many.

Macron will make grand speeches. He will talk about youth and innovation. But the street in Ouagadougou will not be impressed. The French are still seen as arrogant. This summit will not change that.

For now, the game is on. Kenya will host. France will present its new face. But the old one keeps showing through.