The summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has begun. And from a dusty room in the White House, the ripples are already lapping at the shores of Downing Street.

Keir Starmer’s people are watching this one closely. Too closely for comfort, some say. The Prime Minister has been quietly laying the groundwork for a post-Brexit trade deal with Beijing. A charm offensive, they call it in the Lobby. But charm is a fragile currency when superpowers are trading blows.

Here is the equation. Britain needs new trade deals. The EU is still a wall we cannot fully scale. The US is a temperamental ally. And China? China has cash. But the price of that cash is often your soul.

Starmer’s team believes a deal with China could unlock billions. It would be a lifeline for a struggling economy. But the timing is dreadful. Trump is in the room with Xi, and he will be demanding concessions. Tariffs. Technology. Taiwan. The usual shopping list.

Every time Trump extracts a promise from Xi, it narrows the space for Britain. If Beijing agrees to buy more American soybeans, they have less appetite for British cars. If they bow to US pressure on intellectual property, our tech firms lose leverage.

The whispers from the Foreign Office are nervous. There is a feeling that London is being outmanoeuvred. That we are watching from the sidelines while the giants carve up the board.

Backbenchers are getting restless. The China Hawkers, as they are known, are sharpening their knives. They smell weakness. They are already drafting letters of no confidence. Not now, they say. But soon.

Starmer needs this summit to produce ambiguity. He needs Trump to fail to secure a grand bargain. He needs Xi to be left wanting more friends. Then Britain can slide in, offering a gentler handshake.

But if Trump walks out with a win, the game changes. The US will tighten its grip on global trade routes. Britain will be caught in the middle. A small island without a paddle.

The polls are not kind. Labour's lead is slipping. The public is tired of Brexit chaos. They want results. They want trade deals that put food on the table. Starmer has staked his premiership on delivering them.

A source in Number 10 told me this morning: "We are not naive about China. But we are not beggars either. We will walk away if the price is too high."

Sceptics in the Cabinet are less confident. They recall the last time a British PM cosied up to Beijing. The handshake was warm. The backstabbing was colder.

So as Trump and Xi sit down, remember this. Britain is not in the room. But we are on the menu. What they decide will shape our future. Whether we like it or not.

Keep your eyes on the polls. Keep your ear to the ground. This game is far from over.